This tutorial is part of the guide for the Kigali Sim.

Tutorial 5: Simple Policies

ABC Country's first policy intervention using a sales permitting system.
Contents

Motivation

Now that ABC Country has a solid business-as-usual baseline, let's explore policy interventions. In this tutorial, we'll add a sales permitting system that progressively reduces HFC-134a consumption in domestic refrigeration. However, that demand will not go away but, instead, will shift to the lower-GWP R-600a alternative.

Adding R-600a Imports

Before implementing our policy, let's first add import flows for R-600a to match the supply chain pattern we established for HFC-134a in Tutorial 4.

For Domestic Refrigeration, modify your R-600a consumption record:

This gives R-600a a similar import/domestic split as HFC-134a, making the displacement mechanism clearer when we implement the policy.

Animated gif showing updates to R-600a

Adding the Sales Permitting Policy

Now let's create ABC's permitting system that targets HFC-134a in domestic refrigeration, where displaced demand will shift to R-600a.

Animated gif showing how to add a sales permit policy

Creating the Permit Simulation

Now let's create a simulation to see how the permitting policy compares to business-as-usual.

The simulation will now show both your original BAU and new Permit scenarios side by side.

Animated gif showing how to add a sales permit simulation

Results

Let's observe how:

Specifically, under the Substances view with Permit selected under the Simulations radio button, you can see how displacement works: as HFC-134a is restricted, R-600a scales up proportionally. Since R-600a now has both domestic and import sources, the displaced demand gets distributed across both supply chains.

Animated gif showing visualization configuration to observe HFC-134a and R-600a

All that said, remember that without Attribute initial charge to importer checked, the visualizations show only the substance flows for servicing imported equipment, not their initial charge. Before finishing up, let's just quickly check that box once more and:

The lines almost perfectly overlap when Attribute initial charge to importer is checked but are a little further off without it, especially in 2035. This is because, as the import / domestic ratios (and their growth rates) are slightly different for R-600a and HFC-134a, the trade attribution causes the numbers to shift around a bit even though the total global-level picture is essentially balanced. That said, in any case, there are very minor differences expected due to servicing differences between equipment.

Animated gif showing visualization configuration to observe alternative trade attribution.

Conclusion

You've successfully implemented ABC Country's first policy intervention! The sales permitting system demonstrates:

The permitting system shows how a relatively simple policy can achieve significant impacts. This is also a very simple model but we are already incorporating socioeconomic projections and substance interactions.

Download the completed tutorial: tutorial_05.qta - this contains the complete model with sales permitting policies and displacement effects

Next Steps

Tutorial 6 will add a recovery and recycling program targeting the same HFC-134a domestic refrigeration sector. You'll learn how recycling policies complement demand-side restrictions by providing alternative supply sources, and explore how multiple policies work together to achieve comprehensive overall outcomes.

Previous: Tutorial 4 | Next: Tutorial 6


This tutorial is part of the ABC Country case study series demonstrating progressive HFC policy analysis using Kigali Sim.